2009-10 SPx

2009-10 SPx hockey is set to release today, so its time for another review.

SPx is one of those sets that has a distinct following. to me, it seems like the flip side of black diamond. It has a similar price point, but instead of levels of parallels, you get levels of game used cards. Much in the same way that SP Game Used is the flip side of Sp Authentic.

Aside from the first official jersey/auto RC of the year, probably the most talked about card in this set are  shadow boxes. Shadow boxes debuted in SPx Football. Before Mario left the net, he posted about them at Wax Heaven. Gellman also wrote about them in his post at Sports Cards Uncensored. They were a big hit in football and now we're going to see if they're equally popular in hockey.

 Fuhr Shadow Box from eBay item 180458893725


I was a fan of SPx a couple of years ago, but I think this year's cards look horrendous. The letter shaped swatches are clever, but not really hockey related. The Flashback fabrics are more psychedelic than anything, and don't mesh well with featuring the player, the signature or the swatch. The design for "winning" and "Rookie" makes it look like it was cut out from a newpaper one letter at a time. I have to say that so far, SPx appears as though it was a inspired by a psychotic drug trip. A definite pass for me this year.

 

Gustavsson from eBay item 220543323284
Triple GU from eBay item 220543325374

Flashback Fabrics from eBay item 360227841289

Down to the analysis. Since SPx is full of numbered cards and seeding ratios, determining the print run of each card should be a snap. Right off the bat, we know that in a case you should pull :

•  1 Autographed Rookie Jersey card #’d to 499
•  1 Shadowbox card
•  1 Signed Flashback Fabrics
•  2 Flashback Fabrics cards
•  2 Winning Trios Jersey cards
•  3-4 Spectrum parallels

Since there are only 6 Level 1 Autographed Rookie Jersey, there are just under 3,000 cases of SPx. At the same time, in a box break, you'd expect:

• 1 Rookie Jersey Card
• 1 Signed Rookie Jersey card
• 1 Winning Materials Jersey card
• 1 Winning Combos Jersey card
• 3 SPx Rookies/SPxcitement
• 65 Base Cards (subject to change after seeing box breaks)
  

If we look at total all the SPx Rookies and Spx Excitement cards, there should only be about 2,000 cases. Looking at either Rookie jersey or Signed rookie jersey odds, there should only be about 1,600 cases. I'll check out the case breaks and box breaks on this, but lets say that there are about 2,200 cases which is right in the middle of all the predictions. That way, every 4th case would have a second Level 1 RC in the case, every tenth box will be short a rookie or excitement card and the big hits will replace the signed jersey or regular jersey cards. We'll see if that pans out.

Since most everything in this set is numbered, we only have to look at 7 cards:

• 100 Base - 6,500 of each
  
•  47 Winning Materials - 650 of each
•  44 Winning Combos - 700 of each
•  30 Shadow Boxes - 50 of each
•  12 Shadow Box Stoppers - 50 of each
•  30 flashback fabrics - 150 of each
•  30 Autographed Flash Back Fabrics - 75 of each

As always, this assumes no short prints, but its a good average guess. Not a lot of surprises. Case hits, like the shadow boxes, are ~50 each which is consistent with other releases (Wax Heaven FB stars are /39, VOTC Shadow Box chasers /56). I don't have much to compare with since my only other review to date is Collector's Choice. For an autographed card, 75 seems a bit on the high side for the autographed flashback fabrics, especially given the checklist. I'm sure there will be quite a bit of variation in that set. The one interesting stat is that there are more copies of the Combos than the Materials.

Depending on how often the level 1 Rc are pulled and a few other issues like how many boxes are short Rookie Jerseys or Signed jerseys, the numbers may change. If I had to guess, I'd say they might go down a bit if anything. For now, its a good ballpark figure.

Cheers!